The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, United States House of Representatives elections, 2020, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2016, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2012, United States presidential election, 2016, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Cook_Political_Report%27s_Partisan_Voter_Index&oldid=8904365, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections. Democratic support also comes from the areas around major cities. I just dont know about the rest of us. By the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in over 94% of legislative races. 1225 (2018). 1793 (2020), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, The Sweep of the Electoral Power (October 20, 2020). "[1][2][3], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. . According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. Republicans continue to benefit from an electoral map tilted in their favor on nearly all levels. To ensure consistency, all 2021 (pre-redistricting) and 2022 (post-redistricting) PVI scores cited in this report reflect the new formula. Since we first launched the Cook PVI in 1997, there's been a dramatic increase in "straight-ticket" voting, with fewer voters choosing candidates of different parties for the White House and Congress. Using both allows a comparison of short and medium term trends for a district at a glance. UCLA School of Law Most people use these numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district is, not how it compares nationally. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican P. The heavily Democratic parts of the country tend to be clustered in New England and along the West Coast. The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation. Of course, nothing is completely cut and dry. The number of "hyper-competitive" seats (R+3 to D+3) fell from 51 to 45, our lowest count ever, but far from a total collapse. by Daniel P. Tokaji, Free & Fair with Franita and Foley Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. But on the other hand, Im getting kind of tired of PVI, as its just one dimension out of many in describing a district, and one we shouldnt fetishize more than we should. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. The result is a letter (D or R) followed by a number, indicating the extent to which each district leans one way or the other. Besides, presidential results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races. For this thread, I will be using the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which measures by district, how far each district votes for a Democrat or how far each district votes for a Republican, then does it on a state by state level, then on a country level. Constitutional Commentary, Forthcoming, Harvard Public Law Working Paper No. I dont think Cooks PVI or this proposed SVI would be as useful a measurement as they could be. The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. Any reasons not to? Cooks PVI is merely a relative value even using the old data. In the Senate, the most Republican-leaning state to have a Democratic senator is West Virginia (R+22 PVI), represented by Joe Manchin. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the results of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. I think we should use a dual system of level (SVI) and parallel (Cook PVI). The eight races that the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina's rapidly changing landscape. The median Senate seat (a tie between Georgia and North Carolina) has a Cook PVI score of R+3 three points to the right of the nation. 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index. How Effective is COVID-19 Economic Stimulus? Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. Socal gal at heart 07:13, 9 March 2008 (UTC) Reply . "The House is less 'elastic' than ever not just because the share of swing seats has cratered, but because voters are splitting their tickets less frequently. NO. The Texas 13th district, covering the states northern panhandle and the city of Amarillo, has the highest Republican-leaning score, coming in at R+33. Bruce E. Cain, Wendy K. Tam Cho, Yan Y. Liu&Emily R. Zhang,A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, 59 Wm. Given that the data is already entered, we could also look at trends over time. The recognition was that they leaned Democratic (which they do). i think whatever the methodology, it should include 08 numbers and drop out 00 numbers, otherwise its increasingly out of date. I live in a house thats over 40 years old that was constructed on somewhat marshy soil. States that have strong connections to others states without sharing a border? KS-Sen: Sebelius up double digits over either Moran or Tiahrt, The Swing State Project Is Now Daily Kos Elections. SVI would also be a good microtargeting tool, but something tells me that it would just be an under/overperformance scale and wouldnt be as cross-comparable. This isnt as big of a deal with the two Bush elections because they were both so close, but comparing Kerrys 2004 district numbers with Obamas nationwide numbers produces some pretty serious gaps. Chicago and Atlanta are examples of districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. Prior to its April 2009 update, the PVI formula was calculated by comparing district-level results for the past two presidential elections to nationwide results for only the most recent election. The presidential, gubernatorial, and senate results, however, are perhaps the easiest to sort out of all these data sets. Hell, imagine how little the system would have worked after huge landslides like Reagans in 1984 and Nixons in 1972. The PVI was developed by Charles Cook, editor and publisher of Cook, and scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? Ideally, there should be a way of finding this out. The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index was introduced as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of political districts and subdivisions using presidential and gubernatorial elections as a baseline. A Look at the Cook Partisan Voting Index. The Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) is a measure of the partisan tendency of state legislative districts. The index is updated after each election cycle. * Includes an independent senator who caucuses with the Democrats. (I guess I randomly grabbed that number because Ive been thinking about NY-20.) What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024. Instead of using a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to assess partisanship as we've done in the past, we're switching to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential election. But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. University of Wisconsin Law SchoolView posts , Vice Dean for Faculty L. Rev. Wolters Kluwer, 2020), Season 4, Episode 3 Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 2 Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 1 Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections This page was last edited on 16 January 2023, at 06:22. Edward B. Foley, Requiring Majority Winners for Congressional Elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism (May 10, 2021). I could only find the Cook PVI ratings on dKosopedia, but I don't think I can mention Daily Kos as an objective source. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. The floors all tilt in a mostly uniform fashion. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. Are there any pitfalls if we do so? First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole., Professor of Law and Political Science The number reflects the strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points. [1] Yeah. GWU Legal Studies Research Paper No. With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. More podcast episodes , Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, Slate, November 14, 2022, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, The Atlantic, November 2, 2022, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation, NBC News Think, November 1, 2022, The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, Slate, October 26, 2022 (with Nat Bach), The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation, Slate, August 23, 2022 (with Dahlia Lithwick), What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Slate, July 25, 2022, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear,Slate, June 30, 2022, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump,N.Y. Times, June 24, 2022, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024,Wash. Post, June 8, 2022, The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter,Slate, May 10, 2022, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online. L. Rev. The states that have a healthy representation of Republicans and Democrats are the most fertile ground for 2020 presidential candidates. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). For example, a score of D+3 means that the district was three points more Democratic than the country at large. The least Republican-leaning states to have two Republican senators are Florida (R+3 PVI), represented by Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and North Carolina (R+3 PVI), represented by Ted Budd and Thom Tillis. Look at it this way, if the PVU and SVI are the same in a distirct, that tells you the GOP isnt losing a bit of their support come Hell or high water. IL-06, MN-02: Midwestern middle-class suburban districts that are increasingly willing to vote Dem at the top of the ticket but are still unwilling to part with conservative GOPers downticket. Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. [4]. The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. 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